West Bromwich Albion 1–1 Queens Park RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026

1–1

Draw

Queens Park Rangers

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had West Bromwich Albion at 46%, draw at 27%, Queens Park Rangers at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was West Bromwich Albion to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

Albion win

46%

Draw

27%

Actual ✓

Rangers win

26%

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.51 – 1.08

Total 2.59

Actual

1 – 1

Total 2 (-0.6 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.6 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Pre-match: 74%

✓ Won

Outside shot

Over 3.5 Goals

Pre-match: 26%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"West Brom's 0.43 expected-goals advantage underpins the 1X forecast at 74%, suggesting the hosts either win or draw against a visiting side generating just 1.08 chances per game."

> More from Bawler