Derby County 0–3 Swansea CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026

0–3

Swansea City win

Swansea City

> 🧠 Model verdict

✗ Result against the lean

Pre-match, Bawler had Derby County at 44%, draw at 28%, Swansea City at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-3. The model's headline call was Derby County to win.

> Pre-match probability vs result

County win

44%

Draw

28%

City win

28%

Actual ✓

> Expected vs actual goals

Model expected (xG)

1.45 – 1.11

Total 2.56

Actual

0 – 3

Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed

High confidence

Pre-match: 72%

✗ Lost

Medium confidence

Under 2.5 Goals

Pre-match: 53%

✗ Lost

> What we said pre-match

"Derby's lack of remaining stakes contrasts sharply with Swansea's need to play for points, yet the xG gap sits narrow at 0.27, making the 1X forecast (71% probability) the model's high-confidence call."

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