FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Portsmouth 0–2 Derby CountyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Portsmouth at 38%, draw at 28%, Derby County at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-2. The model's headline call was Portsmouth to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Portsmouth win
38%
Draw
28%
County win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.22
Total 2.54
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.5 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.5 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost