How it finished
Swansea City beat Derby County 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Swansea City 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 8 shots (0 on target) to Swansea City's 23 (12), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 3.2.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 65%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs Swansea City?
Swansea City beat Derby County 3–0. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 44% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Swansea City 28%. It forecast 2.6 goals and the match produced 3. Derby County had 8 shots (0 on target) to Swansea City's 23 (12), with 47% of the ball against 53%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 3.2.
What was the final score in Derby County vs Swansea City?
Derby County 0–3 Swansea City, played on 29 Aug 2026 in the England: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 44%, the draw 28% and Swansea City 28%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs Swansea City?
Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–3.2, Shots 8–23, Shots on target 0–12, Shots inside box 5–15, Big chances 0–4, Corners 5–6, Saves 9–0, Fouls 16–7, Offsides 5–4, Yellow cards 3–2.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs Swansea City?
No. It finished 0–3, so Derby County failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs Swansea City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Derby County 44%, it finished Swansea City (28% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No; Model call — we said 1X 72%, it finished Missed; Second call — we said Under 2.5 Goals 53%, it finished Missed.