FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Derby County 2–2 Cardiff CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Derby County at 50%, draw at 27%, Cardiff City at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Derby County to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
County win
50%
Draw
27%
Actual ✓
City win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.60 – 1.01
Total 2.61
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.4 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won