FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Swansea City 0–0 Sheffield UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 22 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Swansea City at 36%, draw at 28%, Sheffield United at 36%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Swansea City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
36%
Draw
28%
Actual ✓
United win
36%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.32 – 1.31
Total 2.63
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.6 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.6 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won