FT · England: EFL Cup · Saturday, 08 August 2026
Derby County 1–2 Lincoln CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 08 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Derby County at 43%, draw at 33%, Lincoln City at 24%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Derby County to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
County win
43%
Draw
33%
City win
24%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 0.99
Total 2.39
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.6 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.6 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 65%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS No
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 65% probability because Derby's 1.40 xG significantly outpaces Lincoln's 0.99, creating enough scoring volume to clear the line despite a modest 2.39 total xG."