Ipswich Town beat Crystal Palace 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Crystal Palace at 64% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ipswich Town 15%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Crystal Palace had 11 shots (4 on target) to Ipswich Town's 12 (6), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 71%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Ipswich Town beat Crystal Palace 3–2. Bawler's model favoured Crystal Palace at 64% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Ipswich Town 15%. It forecast 3.1 goals; the match produced 5. Crystal Palace had 11 shots (4 on target) to Ipswich Town's 12 (6), with 46% of the ball against 54%. Expected goals finished 0.6 to 1.7.
Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich Town, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Crystal Palace 64%, the draw 21% and Ipswich Town 15%.
Full-time: Possession 46%–54%, Expected goals (xG) 0.6–1.7, Shots 11–12, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 9–8, Big chances 1–3, Corners 6–3, Saves 3–2, Fouls 6–16, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 1–3, Red cards 1–0.
Yes — both Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town scored, finishing 2–3. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 54% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Crystal Palace to win 64%, it finished Ipswich Town won (15% called); Total goals — we said 3.1, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 54%, it finished Yes.