FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham ForestMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Crystal Palace or draw at 72%. Bawler had Crystal Palace at 46%, the draw at 26% and Nottingham Forest at 28%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Crystal Palace win
46%
Result
Draw
26%
Nottingham Forest win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.2
Total 2.8
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 3.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Crystal Palace or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.