FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Leeds United 0–0 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 20 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Leeds United at 43%, draw at 25%, Crystal Palace at 31%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Leeds United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
43%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Palace win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.66 – 1.38
Total 3.04
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Leeds' 1.51 xG and Palace's 1.39 xG combine for attacking threat despite their narrow 0.12-point gap in expected output."