FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
Crystal Palace 3–0 MiddlesbroughMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 08 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Crystal Palace at 64%, draw at 22%, Middlesbrough at 15%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Crystal Palace.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Palace win
64%
Actual ✓
Draw
22%
Middlesbrough win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.05 – 0.89
Total 2.94
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 64%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Crystal Palace's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 64% probability, built on a dominant 1.16 xG advantage led by Mateta and Sarr's combined 56% of team attacking output against Middlesbrough's 0.89 xG."