FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Friday, 28 August 2026
Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 28 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Crystal Palace at 36%, draw at 26%, Manchester City at 38%. The match ended 1-4 — confirming the model's lean toward Manchester City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Palace win
36%
Draw
26%
City win
38%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.44 – 1.47
Total 2.92
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost