FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Friday, 28 August 2026
Crystal Palace 1–4 Manchester CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 28 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester City or draw at 64%. Bawler had Crystal Palace at 36%, the draw at 26% and Manchester City at 38%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
Crystal Palace win
36%
Draw
26%
Manchester City win
38%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.5
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.