FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich TownMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Crystal Palace at 64%, draw at 21%, Ipswich Town at 15%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Crystal Palace to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Palace win
64%
Draw
21%
Town win
15%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.14 – 0.95
Total 3.09
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 64%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Crystal Palace's home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.19 xG advantage, with striker Mateta commanding 30% of their attacking output against an Ipswich side generating just 0.95 expected goals."