FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Fulham 2–3 Crystal PalaceMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fulham at 38%, draw at 27%, Crystal Palace at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Fulham to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
38%
Draw
27%
Palace win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.42 – 1.35
Total 2.78
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"With both sides mathematically removed from contention, Fulham's superior expected-goals edge (1.42 to 1.35) and Jiménez's 25% of team creation should power Over 1.5 Goals, a 76% forecast."