What we expect
In plain English
Chicago Fire FC are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model expects them to create around half a goal more per game than New York City FC, and New York City FC have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Chicago Fire FC or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Chicago Fire FC are favoured (50% win probability vs 26% for New York City FC, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Chicago Fire FC 1-1 New York City FC (11.2% probability). Expected total goals: 3.06.
How does Bawler predict Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Chicago Fire FC 50%, the draw 24% and New York City FC 26%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.81 and away expected goals 1.26.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.06. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).