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Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC prediction — MLS · Sat 10 Oct · 19:30 UK

MLS · Sat 10 Oct · 19:30 UK
New York City FCNew York City FC
51Chicago Fire FC win24Draw25New York City FC win
Full time
2–1

How it finished

Chicago Fire FC beat New York City FC 2–1. Chicago Fire FC had 14 shots (4 on target) to New York City FC's 12 (6), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.4, so New York City FC created the better chances and still lost the game.

Chicago FireFull-time statsNew York City
47%Possession53%
1.4Expected goals (xG)1.4
14Shots12
4Shots on target6
9Shots inside box6
2Big chances4
4Corners4
5Saves2
18Fouls10
4Offsides2
4Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
We predicted
2–1
Likeliest score if Chicago Fire FC win (10%). Single likeliest exact score: 1–1 (11%)
Expected goals
1.8v1.2
3.1 in total
Both teams score
59%
Leans yes
3+ goals
59%
Leans likely

What we expected from each side

The grey number is their average over the last six.

Chicago Fire FCChicago Fire FCNew York City FCNew York City FC
1.8Goals1.2
15.8Shots10.5
6.0On target4.6
4.3Corners3.4
Chicago Fire FCChicago Fire FCNew York City FCNew York City FC
0.9Goals0.6
7.0Shots4.5
2.6On target2.0
2.0Corners1.6
Chicago Fire FCChicago Fire FCNew York City FCNew York City FC
1.0Goals0.6
8.8Shots6.0
3.4On target2.7
2.3Corners1.8

What we said the chances were

Chicago Fire FC to score84%
2 or more goals81%
Goal before half-time77%
New York City FC to score70%
3 goals or fewer63%

First half — what we expected

Chicago Fire FC
58%
to score before half-time
New York City FC
45%
to score before half-time

First half — what we expected

How likely we said each side was to reach these totals before half-time.

Chicago Fire FCChicago Fire FCNew York City FCNew York City FC
64%6+ shots32%
40%8+ shots13%
69%2+ shots on target56%
27%4+ shots on target16%
82%1+ corners74%
32%3+ corners23%

League position

New York City FC in their league tableLower half

Head to head

Jul 2026New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire FC
Sept 2025Chicago Fire FC 1–3 New York City FC
May 2025New York City FC 3–1 Chicago Fire FC
Aug 2024New York City FC 2–2 Chicago Fire FC
Jul 2024Chicago Fire FC 0–0 New York City FC
Full-time recap →
Every Bawler's pick is logged before kickoff · Bawler's pick record →

Around this fixture

MLS table →
All fixtures & results →Chicago Fire FC form →New York City FC form →

Common questions

Who won Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Chicago Fire FC beat New York City FC 2–1. Chicago Fire FC had 14 shots (4 on target) to New York City FC's 12 (6), with 47% of the ball against 53%. On expected goals it was 1.4 to 1.4, so New York City FC created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Chicago Fire FC 2–1 New York City FC, played on 10 Oct 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Chicago Fire FC 51%, the draw 24% and New York City FC 25%.

What were the stats in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Full-time: Possession 47%–53%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–1.4, Shots 14–12, Shots on target 4–6, Shots inside box 9–6, Big chances 2–4, Corners 4–4, Saves 5–2, Fouls 18–10, Offsides 4–2, Yellow cards 4–0, Red cards 1–0.

Did both teams score in Chicago Fire FC vs New York City FC?

Yes — both Chicago Fire FC and New York City FC scored, finishing 2–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.