FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Chicago Fire FC 1–3 Philadelphia UnionMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Chicago Fire FC or draw at 65%. Bawler had Chicago Fire FC at 41%, the draw at 24% and Philadelphia Union at 35%. The match finished 1–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Chicago Fire FC win
41%
Draw
24%
Philadelphia Union win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.6
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.