FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was New England Revolution or draw at 67%. Bawler had New England Revolution at 42%, the draw at 24% and Chicago Fire FC at 33%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
New England Revolution win
42%
Result
Draw
24%
Chicago Fire FC win
33%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.5
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 2.3 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.