Bawler's model rates this match: Charlotte FC are favoured (45% win probability vs 28% for Houston Dynamo FC, 27% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Charlotte FC 1-1 Houston Dynamo FC (12.9% probability). Expected total goals: 2.66.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Charlotte FC 45%, the draw 27% and Houston Dynamo FC 28%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.51 and away expected goals 1.15.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.66. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).