FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Vancouver Whitecaps 0–1 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 20 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Vancouver Whitecaps at 66%, draw at 21%, Houston Dynamo FC at 13%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Vancouver Whitecaps to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Whitecaps win
66%
Draw
21%
FC win
13%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.08 – 0.83
Total 2.91
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 87%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost