FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 2–1 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was St. Louis CITY SC or draw at 74%. Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 47%, the draw at 27% and Houston Dynamo FC at 26%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
St. Louis CITY SC win
47%
Result
Draw
27%
Houston Dynamo FC win
26%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.1
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.7.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Medium confidence
St. Louis CITY SC or draw
Pre-match: 74%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.