FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 23 August 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 2–1 Houston Dynamo FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 47%, draw at 27%, Houston Dynamo FC at 26%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward St. Louis CITY SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
47%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
FC win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.57 – 1.10
Total 2.66
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost