FT · USA: MLS · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Houston Dynamo FC 2–1 Real Salt LakeMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 10 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Houston Dynamo FC at 45%, draw at 26%, Real Salt Lake at 29%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Houston Dynamo FC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Lake win
29%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.59 – 1.23
Total 2.82
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 71%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 31%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's call at 77% because Houston's 0.36 expected-goals edge and combined 2.82 xG total favors an open, multi-goal contest."