How it finished
Moreirense beat Casa Pia 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Casa Pia at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Moreirense 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Casa Pia had 14 shots (2 on target) to Moreirense's 6 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.3, so Casa Pia created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one first-half goal: 76%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Moreirense beat Casa Pia 1–0. Bawler's model favoured Casa Pia at 39% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Moreirense 33%. It forecast 2.5 goals; only 1 was scored. Casa Pia had 14 shots (2 on target) to Moreirense's 6 (5), with 62% of the ball against 38%. On expected goals it was 0.8 to 0.3, so Casa Pia created the better chances and still lost the game.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia 0–1 Moreirense, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal. Bawler's model had gone into it with Casa Pia 39%, the draw 29% and Moreirense 33%.
What were the stats in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Full-time: Possession 62%–38%, Expected goals (xG) 0.8–0.3, Shots 14–6, Shots on target 2–5, Shots inside box 10–3, Big chances 1–2, Corners 5–1, Saves 4–2, Fouls 14–18, Offsides 3–0, Yellow cards 1–3.
Did both teams score in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
No. It finished 0–1, so Casa Pia failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Casa Pia 39%, it finished Moreirense (33% called); Total goals — we said 2.5, it finished 1; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished No; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 71%, it finished Missed.