FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Casa Pia 1–4 FC PortoMatch recap · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Pre-match probability vs result
Casa Pia win
10%
Draw
20%
FC Porto win
70%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.7 – 2.1
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.5
From the match itself
The match produced 2.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.