FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Casa Pia 0–1 MoreirenseMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Casa Pia at 39%, draw at 29%, Moreirense at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Casa Pia to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Pia win
39%
Draw
29%
Moreirense win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.31 – 1.19
Total 2.49
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.5 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.5 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 71%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost