FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 24 August 2026
Gil Vicente 2–0 Casa PiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 24 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Gil Vicente to win at 61%. Bawler had Gil Vicente at 61%, the draw at 24% and Casa Pia at 16%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gil Vicente win
61%
Result
Draw
24%
Casa Pia win
16%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 0.8
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Gil Vicente to win
Pre-match: 61%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.