FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Monday, 24 August 2026
Gil Vicente 2–0 Casa PiaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Gil Vicente at 61%, draw at 24%, Casa Pia at 16%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Gil Vicente.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Vicente win
61%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Pia win
16%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.85 – 0.83
Total 2.67
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 61%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 50%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost