Burnley vs Bristol City prediction — Championship · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK

Championship · Sat 5 Sept · 15:00 UK
Burnley 55Draw 25Bristol City 20
The call
55%
Burnley to win
2.7
Goals expected
13d 13hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Burnley or draw80%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
BTTS50%
Burnley win to nil32%
Bristol City or draw45%
Under 3.5 goals72%
Correct score 1–012%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D L D W W D
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BUR 5 · D 0 · BRI 0
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

Mar 2025Burnley 1–0 Bristol City
Nov 2024Bristol City 0–1 Burnley
Apr 2023Bristol City 1–2 Burnley
Sept 2022Burnley 2–1 Bristol City
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Common questions

Who will win Burnley vs Bristol City?

Bawler's model rates this match: Burnley are favoured (55% win probability vs 20% for Bristol City, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Burnley vs Bristol City?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Burnley 1-1 Bristol City (12.0% probability). Expected total goals: 2.68.

How does Bawler predict Burnley vs Bristol City?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Burnley 55%, the draw 25% and Bristol City 20%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Bristol City?

BTTS: Yes (50% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.73 and away expected goals 0.95.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Burnley vs Bristol City?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.68. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Championship table →
All fixtures & results →Burnley form →Bristol City form →