FT · England: Championship · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Bristol City 2–1 PortsmouthMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Bristol City at 40%, draw at 28%, Portsmouth at 32%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Bristol City.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
40%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Portsmouth win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.39 – 1.21
Total 2.60
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Bristol City's lack of stakes with four games left contrasts sharply with Portsmouth fighting relegation, yet the xG gap of just 0.26 keeps this tight—the model's high-confidence call is X2 at 63%."