FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
Bradford City 1–0 BurnleyMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 26 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bradford City at 33%, draw at 27%, Burnley at 40%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-0. The model's headline call was Burnley to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
33%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Burnley win
40%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.30 – 1.45
Total 2.75
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost