FT · England: Championship · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Bristol City 0–1 Lincoln CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Bristol City at 38%, draw at 27%, Lincoln City at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Bristol City to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
City win
38%
Draw
27%
City win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.40 – 1.31
Total 2.71
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
X2
Pre-match: 62%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 51%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Bristol City's home advantage and marginal xG edge (1.40 to 1.31) make X2—a draw or away win—the model's high-confidence call at 62%, reflecting how evenly matched these sides project."