FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
Preston North End 1–3 Bristol CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 01 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Preston North End at 41%, draw at 27%, Bristol City at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-3. The model's headline call was Preston North End to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
End win
41%
Draw
27%
City win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.31
Total 2.81
Actual
1 – 3
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost