Bologna and Sassuolo drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Bologna at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Bologna had 21 shots (5 on target) to Sassuolo's 15 (6), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.4.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 54%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Bologna and Sassuolo drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Bologna at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. Bologna had 21 shots (5 on target) to Sassuolo's 15 (6), with 61% of the ball against 39%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 1.4.
Bologna 2–2 Sassuolo, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Bologna 50%, the draw 26% and Sassuolo 24%.
Full-time: Possession 61%–39%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–1.4, Shots 21–15, Shots on target 5–6, Shots inside box 14–9, Big chances 6–3, Corners 10–7, Saves 4–3, Fouls 14–9, Offsides 0–2, Yellow cards 2–1.
Yes — both Bologna and Sassuolo scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 53% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Bologna or draw 76%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 53%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Landed.