Bologna vs Sassuolo prediction — Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 17:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 6 Sept · 17:00 UK
Bologna 50Draw 26Sassuolo 24
The call
50%
Bologna to win
2.7
Goals expected
13d 22hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Bologna or draw76%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals51%
BTTS53%
Bologna win to nil28%
Sassuolo or draw50%
Under 3.5 goals71%
Correct score 1–112%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)L L D W W D
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.6 / match
Head-to-head, last 5BOL 2 · D 3 · SAS 0

Head to head

Mar 2026Sassuolo 0–1 Bologna
Dec 2025Bologna 1–1 Sassuolo
Feb 2024Bologna 4–2 Sassuolo
Oct 2023Sassuolo 1–1 Bologna
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Common questions

Who will win Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Bawler's model rates this match: Bologna are favoured (50% win probability vs 24% for Sassuolo, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Bologna 1-1 Sassuolo (12.4% probability). Expected total goals: 2.71.

How does Bawler predict Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Bologna 50%, the draw 26% and Sassuolo 24%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

BTTS: Yes (53% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.64 and away expected goals 1.07.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.71. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Bologna form →Sassuolo form →