FT · Italy: Serie A · Friday, 18 September 2026
Monza 2–1 SassuoloMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 18 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Monza at 45%, draw at 27%, Sassuolo at 28%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Monza.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Monza win
45%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
Sassuolo win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.51 – 1.16
Total 2.67
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 75%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 75% because Monza's 1.51 expected goals—a 0.35 edge over Sassuolo—suggests both sides will find the net in a low-block encounter."