FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Sassuolo 1–1 AC MilanMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AC Milan or draw at 69%. Bawler had Sassuolo at 31%, the draw at 26% and AC Milan at 43%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Sassuolo win
31%
Draw
26%
Result
AC Milan win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.