FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Sassuolo 3–2 JuventusMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Sassuolo at 22%, draw at 25%, Juventus at 53%. Against expectation, the match finished 3-2. The model's headline call was Juventus to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Sassuolo win
22%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Juventus win
53%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.08 – 1.77
Total 2.85
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 78%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, anchored by Juventus's 0.69 xG advantage and 53% win probability over a Sassuolo side managing just 1.08 expected goals at home."