Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction — MLS · Sun 23 Aug · 01:30 UK

MLS · Sun 23 Aug · 01:30 UK
Austin FC 26Draw 25Philadelphia Union 49
The call
79%
Over 1.5 goals
3.0
Goals expected
Full time
Final 1–1

How it finished

Austin FC and Philadelphia Union drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Philadelphia Union at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. Austin FC had 12 shots (6 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 9 (3), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 1.0.

Austin FCFull-time statsPhiladelphia…
55%Possession45%
1.3Expected goals (xG)1.0
12Shots9
6Shots on target3
10Shots inside box6
4Big chances2
6Corners6
2Saves5
8Fouls13
2Offsides1
1Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultPhiladelphia Union 49%Draw (25% called)
Total goals3.02
Both teams to score58%Yes
Model callOver 1.5 Goals 79%Landed
Second callX2 74%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
Philadelphia Union to score82%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Austin FC to score70%
Under 3.5 goals66%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5AUS 0 · D 1 · PHI 0
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Mar 2024Austin FC 2–2 Philadelphia Union
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Austin FC and Philadelphia Union drew 1–1. Bawler's model favoured Philadelphia Union at 49% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 25%. It forecast 3.0 goals; only 2 were scored. Austin FC had 12 shots (6 on target) to Philadelphia Union's 9 (3), with 55% of the ball against 45%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 1.0.

What was the final score in Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Austin FC 1–1 Philadelphia Union, played on 23 Aug 2026 in the USA: MLS. Bawler's model had gone into it with Austin FC 26%, the draw 25% and Philadelphia Union 49%.

What were the stats in Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Full-time: Possession 55%–45%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–1.0, Shots 12–9, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 10–6, Big chances 4–2, Corners 6–6, Saves 2–5, Fouls 8–13, Offsides 2–1, Yellow cards 1–2.

Did both teams score in Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Yes — both Austin FC and Philadelphia Union scored, finishing 1–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 58% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Austin FC vs Philadelphia Union right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said Philadelphia Union 49%, it finished Draw (25% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 58%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said Over 1.5 Goals 79%, it finished Landed; Second call — we said X2 74%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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