FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Philadelphia Union 3–2 Atlanta United FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Philadelphia Union at 49%, draw at 28%, Atlanta United FC at 23%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Philadelphia Union.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Union win
49%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
FC win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 1.21
Total 3.04
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 25%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 77% because Philadelphia's 1.83 xG and Atlanta's 1.21 xG create a combined 3.04-goal expected output that heavily favors a multi-goal game."