FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 02 August 2026
Colorado Rapids 1–0 Austin FCMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 02 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Colorado Rapids at 54%, draw at 27%, Austin FC at 19%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Colorado Rapids.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Rapids win
54%
Actual ✓
Draw
27%
FC win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.06
Total 2.97
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 77% probability because Colorado's 1.91 xG vastly outpaces Austin's 1.06, suggesting the hosts will consistently threaten a low-scoring stalemate into a multi-goal evening."