FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 17 August 2026
Austin FC 1–2 FC DallasMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 17 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Dallas or draw at 72%. Bawler had Austin FC at 28%, the draw at 30% and FC Dallas at 41%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Austin FC win
28%
Draw
30%
FC Dallas win
41%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.6
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Dallas's attacking edge (1.59 xG vs Austin's 1.28) underpins the Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, where both sides' output suggests a multi-goal affair is more likely than not."