FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 17 August 2026
Austin FC 1–2 FC DallasMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 17 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Austin FC at 28%, draw at 30%, FC Dallas at 41%. The match ended 1-2 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Dallas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
28%
Draw
30%
Dallas win
41%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.28 – 1.59
Total 2.87
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Dallas's attacking edge (1.59 xG vs Austin's 1.28) underpins the Over 1.5 Goals forecast at 76%, where both sides' output suggests a multi-goal affair is more likely than not."