How it finished
Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Aston Villa at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Nottingham Forest 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Aston Villa had 7 shots (5 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 22 (7), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.9.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 70%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Common questions
Who won Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2–1. Bawler's model favoured Aston Villa at 47% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Nottingham Forest 27%. It forecast 2.8 goals and the match produced 3. Aston Villa had 7 shots (5 on target) to Nottingham Forest's 22 (7), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 0.9 to 1.9.
What was the final score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest, played on 12 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Aston Villa 47%, the draw 26% and Nottingham Forest 27%.
What were the stats in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 0.9–1.9, Shots 7–22, Shots on target 5–7, Shots inside box 6–14, Big chances 2–4, Corners 6–1, Saves 5–5, Fouls 11–16, Offsides 0–4, Yellow cards 2–5.
Did both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Yes — both Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest scored, finishing 1–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 56% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Aston Villa or draw 73%, it finished Nottingham Forest won (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.8, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 56%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 53%, it finished Landed.