What we expect
Model inputs
Common questions
Who will win Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler's model rates this match: Aston Villa are favoured (47% win probability vs 27% for Nottingham Forest, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Aston Villa 1-1 Nottingham Forest (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.81.
How does Bawler predict Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Aston Villa 47%, the draw 26% and Nottingham Forest 27%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
BTTS: Yes (56% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.63 and away expected goals 1.19.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.81. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).