FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Liverpool 2–2 Nottingham ForestMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Liverpool at 53%, draw at 24%, Nottingham Forest at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Liverpool to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
53%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Forest win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.14
Total 2.98
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's Champions League push at home against a side with no remaining stakes sets up Over 1.5 Goals at 81%, with the hosts' 0.77 xG advantage anchored by Salah's 19% team share."