FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Liverpool 2–2 Nottingham ForestMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Liverpool or draw at 77%. Bawler had Liverpool at 53%, the draw at 24% and Nottingham Forest at 23%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
53%
Draw
24%
Result
Nottingham Forest win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Medium confidence
Liverpool to win
Pre-match: 53%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Liverpool's Champions League push at home against a side with no remaining stakes sets up Over 1.5 Goals at 81%, with the hosts' 0.77 xG advantage anchored by Salah's 19% team share."