FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–2 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Nottingham Forest or draw at 77%. Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 52%, the draw at 25% and Leeds United at 23%. The match finished 0–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nottingham Forest win
52%
Draw
25%
Leeds United win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Nottingham Forest to win
Pre-match: 61%
Missed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.