FT · ENGLAND: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 25 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 52%, draw at 25%, Leeds United at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Nottingham Forest to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Forest win
52%
Draw
25%
United win
23%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 61%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✓ Won