FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–1 Coventry CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 56%, draw at 24%, Coventry City at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Nottingham Forest to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Forest win
56%
Draw
24%
City win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.90 – 1.07
Total 2.98
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Forest's attacking duo of Gibbs-White and Wood control nearly half their team's chances, and an 0.89 xG advantage makes Over 1.5 Goals (81% forecast) the model's clearest signal in a lopsided matchup."