FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Nottingham Forest 0–0 Tottenham HotspurMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Nottingham Forest at 48%, draw at 26%, Tottenham Hotspur at 26%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Nottingham Forest to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Forest win
48%
Draw
26%
Actual ✓
Hotspur win
26%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.12
Total 2.73
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 74%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 29%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Tottenham's relegation fight leaves no margin for error against a settled Forest side generating 0.44 more expected goals, making the 1X forecast (73% confidence) the model's primary call."