What we expect
In plain English
Aston Villa are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Aston Villa or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Bawler's model rates this match: Aston Villa are favoured (39% win probability vs 35% for Brentford, 26% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Brentford?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Aston Villa 1-1 Brentford (11.9% probability). Expected total goals: 3.00.
How does Bawler predict Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Aston Villa 39%, the draw 26% and Brentford 35%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.55 and away expected goals 1.45.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Aston Villa vs Brentford?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.00. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).