FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Brentford 1–2 LiverpoolMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Brentford or draw at 65%. Bawler had Brentford at 40%, the draw at 25% and Liverpool at 35%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Brentford win
40%
Draw
25%
Liverpool win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.5
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.