What we expect
Player forecasts
How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.
Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.
These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Bawler's model rates this match: Santa Clara are favoured (37% win probability vs 34% for Arouca, 29% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Santa Clara?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Arouca 1-1 Santa Clara (13.7% probability). Expected total goals: 2.45.
How does Bawler predict Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Arouca 34%, the draw 29% and Santa Clara 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
BTTS: No (50% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 1.20 and away expected goals 1.25.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Arouca vs Santa Clara?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.45. The lean is Under 2.5 (likely a tighter affair).