FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Alverca 1–1 Santa ClaraMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Alverca or draw at 65%. Bawler had Alverca at 36%, the draw at 30% and Santa Clara at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
36%
Draw
30%
Result
Santa Clara win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.2
Total 2.3
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 1.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 2.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 21%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 68% because Alverca and Santa Clara combine for just 2.34 expected goals in a fixture where win probability splits almost evenly at 36%-35%, forcing attacking intent from both sides."