FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Alverca 1–1 Santa ClaraMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Alverca at 36%, draw at 30%, Santa Clara at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was Alverca to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Alverca win
36%
Draw
30%
Actual ✓
Clara win
35%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.18 – 1.16
Total 2.34
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-0.3 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.3 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 68%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 21%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 68% because Alverca and Santa Clara combine for just 2.34 expected goals in a fixture where win probability splits almost evenly at 36%-35%, forcing attacking intent from both sides."