FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Santa Clara 1–0 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Santa Clara or draw at 66%. Bawler had Santa Clara at 35%, the draw at 31% and FC Famalicao at 34%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Santa Clara win
35%
Result
Draw
31%
FC Famalicao win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.1
Total 2.2
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Santa Clara or draw
Pre-match: 66%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 18%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.