FT · PORTUGAL: Liga Portugal · Sunday, 23 August 2026
Santa Clara 1–0 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 23 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Santa Clara at 35%, draw at 31%, FC Famalicao at 34%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Santa Clara.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Clara win
35%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Famalicao win
34%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.12 – 1.10
Total 2.22
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.2 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 66%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 18%
✗ Lost