FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Arouca 1–0 EstrelaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Arouca or draw at 73%. Bawler had Arouca at 47%, the draw at 25% and Estrela at 27%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Arouca win
47%
Result
Draw
25%
Estrela win
27%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.2
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.7 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
Arouca or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.