FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Casa Pia 0–1 Santa ClaraMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Santa Clara or draw at 77%. Bawler had Casa Pia at 23%, the draw at 28% and Santa Clara at 48%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Casa Pia win
23%
Draw
28%
Santa Clara win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
0.9 – 1.4
Total 2.4
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Santa Clara or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.